Poker odds and outs
Count the cards that would win you the hand, and you know how likely you are to get there. Here's how, with a calculator that does the sums.
What an out is
An out is a card still to come that would give you the best hand. Say you hold two hearts and the flop brings two more: any of the nine hearts left in the deck makes your flush. You have nine outs.
On the flop you've seen five cards, your two and the board's three, so 47 are unseen. Nine of them are hearts.
The rule of 4 and 2
Players at the table don't do fractions. They use a shortcut:
- On the flop, with the turn and river to come: outs × 4 is about your chance, in percent, of hitting by the river.
- On the turn, with one card to come: outs × 2.
Nine outs on the flop is about 36%; the exact figure is 35.0%. On the turn it's about 18%; exactly, 19.6%. Close enough to decide in your head. The shortcut runs high with lots of outs: past 12 or so, take a few points off.
Common draws
| Draw | Outs | Flop to river | Turn to river |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flush draw Two hearts in your hand, two on the flop | 9 | 35.0% | 19.6% |
| Open-ended straight draw 9-8 on a 7-6-2 flop | 8 | 31.5% | 17.4% |
| Flush draw and open-ended straight draw 9♥ 8♥ on 7♥ 6♥ 2♣ | 15 | 54.1% | 32.6% |
| Gutshot straight draw 9-8 on a J-7-2 flop: only a 10 makes it | 4 | 16.5% | 8.7% |
| Two overcards A-K on a 9-6-2 flop: any ace or king for top pair | 6 | 24.1% | 13.0% |
| Pocket pair to a set 5-5 on a K-9-2 flop | 2 | 8.4% | 4.3% |
| Two pair to a full house K-9 on a K-9-2 flop | 4 | 16.5% | 8.7% |
| A set to a full house or four of a kind 5-5 on a K-9-5 flop, by the river | 7 | 27.8% | 15.2% |
Odds against, and the pot
Players often say a chance as odds against: a flush draw on the turn hits about one time in five, so it's about 4 to 1 against. That's useful when you compare it with the pot. If calling costs 10 chips to win a pot of 50, the pot offers 5 to 1, better than the 4 to 1 against hitting, so the call pays off over time. If it costs 25 to win 50, the pot offers only 2 to 1, and the call loses over time.
Practise it
The best way to learn outs is a few hands at a table. On Poker Rooms, when players are all in the table shows each one's chance of winning as the cards come, so you can check your counting.
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